Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Smart Money Analysis
24 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 63% consensus betting NO. This creates a 0.8% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.96. Smart money has committed $128.9K in total exposure to this market.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 11Alpha Signal: HOLD
24 smart wallets • LEAN_NO consensus (63%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.04 (4.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.96 (96.0% implied probability). The market has $41K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?"?▾
24 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 63% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $128.9K. The alpha score is 7 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 7 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 0.8% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.