Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Smart Money Analysis
11 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 82% consensus betting NO. This creates a significant 61.5% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.36. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $21.4K. An alpha score of 74 signals strong smart money interest relative to the broader market. With 50 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 449%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 41Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
11 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (82%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?"?â–¾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.64 (63.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.36 (36.5% implied probability). The market has $0K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?"?â–¾
11 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 82% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $21.4K. The alpha score is 74 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?â–¾
This market has an alpha score of 74 out of 100, which indicates strong smart money interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?â–¾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?â–¾
The 61.5% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.