Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Smart Money Analysis
16 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 56% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 55.7% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.17. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $4.7K. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 74%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 26Alpha Signal: HOLD
16 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (56%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?â–¾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.17 (17.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.82 (82.5% implied probability). The market has $0K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?â–¾
16 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 56% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $4.7K. The alpha score is 3 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?â–¾
This market has an alpha score of 3 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?â–¾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?â–¾
The 55.7% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.