Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Smart Money Analysis
75 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 58% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 51.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.24. With $802.0K in total smart money exposure, this represents one of the highest-conviction plays in the dataset.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 34Alpha Signal: HOLD
75 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (58%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.24 (24.3% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.76 (75.8% implied probability). The market has $340K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?▾
75 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 58% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $802.0K. The alpha score is 10 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 10 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 51.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.