US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Smart Money Analysis
38 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 58% consensus betting NO. This creates a 3.2% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.93. Smart money has committed $212.6K in total exposure to this market. Resolution is 9 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 132%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 37Alpha Signal: HOLD
38 smart wallets • LEAN_NO consensus (58%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.07 (7.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.93 (92.5% implied probability). The market has $383K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"?▾
38 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 58% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $212.6K. The alpha score is 7 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 7 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 3.2% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.