Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Smart Money Analysis
149 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 64% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 33.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.50. Smart money has committed $329.6K in total exposure to this market. With only 1 day until resolution, this is a time-critical opportunity — odds may shift rapidly as the deadline approaches. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 40Alpha Signal: HOLD
149 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (64%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.50 (50.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.50 (50.0% implied probability). The market has $112K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?"?▾
149 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 64% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $329.6K. The alpha score is 33 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 33 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 33.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.