Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?
Smart Money Analysis
12 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 58% consensus betting YES. This creates a 2.2% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.94. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $4.6K. Resolution is 10 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 80%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 27Alpha Signal: HOLD
12 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (58%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.94 (94.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.06 (6.0% implied probability). The market has $29K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?"?▾
12 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 58% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $4.6K. The alpha score is 3 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 3 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 2.2% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.