Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Smart Money Analysis
46 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 78% consensus betting NO. This creates a notable 11.5% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.86. Smart money has committed $374.4K in total exposure to this market. The alpha score of 100 places this in the top tier of all 25,000+ tracked markets — indicating an exceptionally strong signal-to-noise ratio. With 42 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 100%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 35Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
46 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (78%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.14 (13.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.86 (86.5% implied probability). The market has $8.0M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"?▾
46 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 78% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $374.4K. The alpha score is 100 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 100 out of 100, which places it in the top tier of all tracked markets. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 11.5% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.