Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Smart Money Analysis
10 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 60% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 66.1% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.03. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $1.6K. Resolution is 7 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 49Alpha Signal: HOLD
10 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (60%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?"?â–¾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.03 (2.6% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.97 (97.4% implied probability). The market has $39K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?"?â–¾
10 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 60% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $1.6K. The alpha score is 8 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?â–¾
This market has an alpha score of 8 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?â–¾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?â–¾
The 66.1% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.