Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Smart Money Analysis
15 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 86% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 32.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.66. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $34.1K. An alpha score of 77 signals strong smart money interest relative to the broader market. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 113%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 20Alpha Signal: BUY_YES
15 smart wallets • STRONG_YES consensus (86%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.66 (66.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.34 (34.0% implied probability). The market has $98K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?"?▾
15 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 86% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $34.1K. The alpha score is 77 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 77 out of 100, which indicates strong smart money interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 32.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.