Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Smart Money Analysis
144 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 66% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 50.1% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.26. With $2.50M in total smart money exposure, this represents one of the highest-conviction plays in the dataset. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 78%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 33Alpha Signal: HOLD
144 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (66%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.26 (25.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.74 (74.5% implied probability). The market has $14.5M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?▾
144 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 66% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $2.50M. The alpha score is 23 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 23 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 50.1% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.