Will Republican House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Smart Money Analysis
1 tracked smart wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 100% consensus betting NO. This creates a 9.9% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.88. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $114. With 30 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 120%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 24Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
1 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (100%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will Republican House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?"?â–¾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.12 (11.8% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.88 (88.1% implied probability). The market has $31K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will Republican House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?"?â–¾
1 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 100% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $114. The alpha score is 19 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?â–¾
This market has an alpha score of 19 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?â–¾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?â–¾
The 9.9% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.