US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Smart Money Analysis
79 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 56% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 45.6% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.32. Smart money has committed $105.4K in total exposure to this market. With 42 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 396%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 44Alpha Signal: HOLD
79 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (56%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.32 (32.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.68 (68.0% implied probability). The market has $3.3M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?"?▾
79 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 56% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $105.4K. The alpha score is 24 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 24 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 45.6% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.