US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Smart Money Analysis
22 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 73% consensus betting NO. This creates a notable 19.5% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.79. Smart money has committed $119.2K in total exposure to this market. The alpha score of 85 places this in the top tier of all 25,000+ tracked markets — indicating an exceptionally strong signal-to-noise ratio. With 26 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 274%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 38Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
22 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (73%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.21 (21.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.79 (78.5% implied probability). The market has $1.3M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?"?▾
22 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 73% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $119.2K. The alpha score is 85 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 85 out of 100, which places it in the top tier of all tracked markets. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 19.5% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.