Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Smart Money Analysis
152 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 61% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 33.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.50. Smart money has committed $335.1K in total exposure to this market. An alpha score of 63 signals strong smart money interest relative to the broader market. Resolution is 10 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 58Alpha Signal: HOLD
152 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (61%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.50 (50.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.50 (50.0% implied probability). The market has $6.4M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?"?▾
152 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 61% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $335.1K. The alpha score is 63 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 63 out of 100, which indicates strong smart money interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 33.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.