Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Smart Money Analysis
17 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 76% consensus betting NO. This creates a significant 49.5% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.48. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $9.3K. The alpha score of 84 places this in the top tier of all 25,000+ tracked markets — indicating an exceptionally strong signal-to-noise ratio. Resolution is 12 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 48Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
17 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (76%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.52 (51.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.48 (48.5% implied probability). The market has $74K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?"?▾
17 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 76% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $9.3K. The alpha score is 84 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 84 out of 100, which places it in the top tier of all tracked markets. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 49.5% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.