Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Smart Money Analysis
58 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 78% consensus betting NO. This creates a significant 55.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.43. Smart money has committed $101.9K in total exposure to this market. The alpha score of 44 indicates moderate smart money attention on this market. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 70%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 30Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
58 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (78%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.57 (57.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.43 (43.0% implied probability). The market has $1.1M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?▾
58 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 78% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $101.9K. The alpha score is 44 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 44 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 55.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.