Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
Smart Money Analysis
20 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 70% consensus betting NO. This creates a significant 34.0% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.64. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $6.1K. An alpha score of 79 signals strong smart money interest relative to the broader market. Resolution is 12 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 44Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
20 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (70%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.36 (36.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.64 (64.0% implied probability). The market has $112K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?"?▾
20 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 70% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $6.1K. The alpha score is 79 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 79 out of 100, which indicates strong smart money interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 34.0% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.