US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Smart Money Analysis
5 tracked smart wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 71% consensus betting NO. This creates a significant 65.5% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.33. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $14.0K. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 83%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 30Alpha Signal: BUY_NO
5 smart wallets • STRONG_NO consensus (71%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.68 (67.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.33 (32.5% implied probability). The market has $137K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?"?▾
5 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 71% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $14.0K. The alpha score is 10 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 10 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 65.5% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.