Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?
Smart Money Analysis
3 tracked smart wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 67% consensus betting NO. This creates a 0.2% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.97. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $1.4K. Resolution is 9 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 27Alpha Signal: HOLD
3 smart wallets • LEAN_NO consensus (67%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?"?â–¾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.03 (3.1% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.97 (96.9% implied probability). The market has $17K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?"?â–¾
3 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 67% consensus betting NO. These wallets have a combined exposure of $1.4K. The alpha score is 4 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?â–¾
This market has an alpha score of 4 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?â–¾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?â–¾
The 0.2% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.