Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Smart Money Analysis
137 of the highest-performing Polymarket wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 60% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 41.8% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.38. With $1.26M in total smart money exposure, this represents one of the highest-conviction plays in the dataset. The alpha score of 47 indicates moderate smart money attention on this market. With 50 days until resolution, there is still time for the market to converge toward the smart money consensus. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 305%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 44Alpha Signal: HOLD
137 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (60%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.38 (37.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.63 (62.5% implied probability). The market has $4.4M in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?"?▾
137 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 60% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $1.26M. The alpha score is 47 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 47 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 41.8% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.