Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
Smart Money Analysis
10 top-performing wallets have taken positions on this market, with a 63% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 48.4% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.28. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $3.1K. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 79%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 24Alpha Signal: HOLD
10 smart wallets • LEAN_YES consensus (63%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.28 (28.0% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.72 (72.0% implied probability). The market has $33K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?"?▾
10 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 63% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $3.1K. The alpha score is 7 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 7 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 48.4% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.