Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?
Smart Money Analysis
2 tracked smart wallets have taken positions on this market, with an overwhelming 100% consensus betting YES. This creates a significant 95.6% edge between the smart money consensus and the current market price of $0.02. Total tracked exposure from smart wallets stands at $391. Resolution is 11 days away, creating near-term urgency for traders positioning on this outcome. If smart money is correct, the annualized return on this position would be approximately 1000%.
Opportunity Metrics
Score: 48Alpha Signal: BUY_YES
2 smart wallets • STRONG_YES consensus (100%)
Market Stats
Key Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds on "Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?"?▾
As of the latest data, YES is trading at $0.02 (2.5% implied probability) and NO is trading at $0.98 (97.5% implied probability). The market has $5K in 24-hour trading volume.
What is smart money betting on "Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?"?▾
2 tracked smart wallets are positioned on this market with a 100% consensus betting YES. These wallets have a combined exposure of $391. The alpha score is 9 out of 100.
What is the alpha score for this market?▾
This market has an alpha score of 9 out of 100, which indicates moderate tracking interest. The alpha score measures the concentration and conviction of high-performing wallets positioned in this market.
How can I trade this market?▾
You can trade this market directly through Polymarket, or use PolyFire's Telegram bot for instant execution with copy trading, AI signals, and smart wallet tracking. PolyFire charges a 1% fee on trades only and is fully non-custodial.
What does the consensus edge mean?▾
The 95.6% consensus edge represents the gap between what smart money is paying and where the market currently trades. A larger edge suggests smart wallets see value that the broader market hasn't priced in yet.