How to Use PolyFire Markets On Fire
A complete guide to using PolyFire's Markets On Fire feature — understanding alpha scores, filtering markets, and executing trades via Telegram.
Understanding the Dashboard
The Markets On Fire page displays a table of markets sorted by alpha score. Each row shows key metrics at a glance: category, market question, alpha score, wallet count, consensus direction, YES/NO prices, edge percentage, annualized return, days remaining, and volume.
Use the category filter to focus on specific sectors (sports, politics, crypto, etc.) and the sort options to prioritize different metrics based on your trading style.
Key Metrics Explained
Alpha Score (0-100): A composite of smart wallet activity, consensus strength, and opportunity quality. Higher is better.
Smart Wallet Count: How many tracked top-performing wallets hold positions. More wallets means more conviction.
Consensus: The direction most smart wallets agree on. STRONG means high agreement, LEAN means moderate.
Edge %: The gap between smart money's average entry and the current price. Larger edge means more potential upside.
Annualized Return: The edge projected to a yearly rate for comparing short-term and long-term opportunities.
Days Remaining: Time until market resolution. Shorter timeframes with high alpha can be especially interesting.
Finding Opportunities
Look for markets with high alpha scores (70+), multiple smart wallets in agreement, and reasonable days remaining. Markets with strong consensus and high annualized returns often represent the best risk-adjusted opportunities.
Click any market to see its detail page, which includes deeper analytics: opportunity metrics, market stats, and a direct link to trade it on Telegram.
Executing Trades
When you find a market you want to trade, click "Trade on Telegram" to open it directly in the PolyFire bot. From there, you can choose your trade amount and execute instantly. The entire flow takes seconds.
You can also set up copy trading for specific smart wallets you trust, so you automatically mirror their trades across all markets — not just the ones you find on Markets On Fire.
Tips for Success
1. Don't blindly follow alpha scores — use them as a starting point for your own analysis. 2. Diversify across categories and markets. 3. Pay attention to liquidity and volume — low-liquidity markets can be difficult to exit. 4. Use the annualized return metric to compare opportunities with different timeframes. 5. Start small and scale up as you develop confidence in your strategy.